13 out of 24 (including two where I didn’t even call the backup) — easily one of the worst showings I’ve ever had, though I can take solace, I suppose, in the fact that some of my muffs came in places where I was thisclose to choosing the ultimate winner (especially in the shorts and costuming categories). Also, I am fine with this if it meant getting the surprise of Olivia Colman winning and the gloriousness of her daffy acceptance speech.
Picture
Will win: Roma
Could win: Green Book
Should win: The Favourite
Shoulda been a contender: If Beale Street Could Talk
Director
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Could win: Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Should win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Shoulda been a contender: Paul King, Paddington 2
Actor
Will win: Rami Makek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Could win: Christian Bale, Vice
Should win: Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Shoulda been a contender: Joaquin Phenix, You Were Never Really Here
Actress
Will win: Glenn Close, The Wife
Could win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Should win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Shoulda been a contender: Julianne Nicholson, Who We Are Now
Supporting Actor
Will win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Could win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should win: Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Shoulda been a contender: Steven Yuen, Burning
Supporting Actress
Will win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Could win: Amy Adams, Vice
Should win: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Shoulda been a contender: Molly Parker, Madeline’s Madeline
Original Screenplay
Will win: The Favourite
Could win: Green Book
Should win: The Favourite
Shoulda been a contender: Cold War
Adapted Screenplay
Will win: BlacKkKlansman
Could win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Shoulda been a contender: Paddington 2
Foreign Language Film
Will win: Roma
Could win: Cold War
Should win: Roma
Shoulda been a contender: Burning
Documentary Feature
Will win: Free Solo
Could win: RBG
Should win: Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Shoulda been a contender: Bisbee ’17
Animated Feature
Will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Could win: Incredibles 2
Should win: Isle of Dogs
Shoulda been a contender: Teen Titans Go! to the Movies
Cinematography
Will win: Roma
Could win: The Favourite
Should win: Roma
Shoulda been a contender: Annihilation
Editing
Will win: Vice
Could win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Should win: The Favourite
Shoulda been a contender: Madeline’s Madeline
Score
Will win: BlacKkKlansman
Could win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Missed: Black Panther
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Shoulda been a contender: Suspiria
Song
Will win: “Shallow,” A Star Is Born
Could win: “All the Stars,” Black Panther
Should win: “Shallow,” A Star Is Born
Shoulda been a contender: “Suspirium,” Suspiria
Production Design
Will win: Black Panther
Could win: The Favourite
Should win: The Favourite
Shoulda been a contender: Suspiria
Costume Design
Will win: The Favourite
Could win: Black Panther
Should win: The Favourite
Shoulda been a contender: Suspiria
Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: Vice
Could win: Mary Queen of Scots
Should win: Border
Shoulda been a contender: Suspiria
Sound Editing
Will win: First Man
Could win: A Quiet Place
Missed: Bohemian Rhapsody
Should win: Black Panther
Shoulda been a contender: Annihilation
Sound Mixing
Will win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Could win: A Star Is Born
Should win: First Man
Shoulda been a contender: Annihilation
Visual Effects
Will win: Avengers: Infinity War
Could win: First Man
Should win: Ready Player One
Shoulda been a contender: First Man
Animated Short
Will win: Weekends
Could win: Bao
Live Action Short
Will win: Marguerite
Could win: Skin
Documentary Short Subject
Will win: Black Sheep
Could win: Period. End of Sentence.
