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Oscar '02 Nominee Predictions

Opening Commentary: Unfortunately time constraints mean that I will not be able to write analysis to go with my predictions before the nominations announcement Tuesday.  I might turn in some paragraphs on why I chose who I chose, but once the nominations have been announced, it's somewhat useless to try and wax poetically on my mistakes.

I'm still filling in precursors -- now I see why Peter Bart and others have complained about the rise in awards bodies this year.

In parenthesis are awards and nominations given in that category (NBR = National Board of Review, LAFC = Los Angles Film Critics, NYFC = New York Film Critics, BFC = Boston Film Critics, TFC = Toronto Film Critics, BrFC = Broadcast Film Critics, SDFC = San Diego Film Critics, NSFC = National Society of Film Critics, CFC = Chicago Film Critics, FFC = Florida Film Critics, SeFC = Southeastern Film Critics, SFFC = San Francisco Film Critics, SFC = Seattle Film Critics, KFC = Kansas Film Critics, LVFC = Las Vegas Film Critics, DFC = Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics, PFC = Phoenix Film Critics, VFC = Vancouver Film Critics, OFCS = Online Film Critics Society, EFA = European Film Awards, AFI = American Film Institute, BAFTA = British Academy Awards, GS = Golden Satellites, GG = Golden Globes, IS = Independent Spirit Awards, WGA = Writers Guild, SAG = Screen Actors Guild, PGA = Producers Guild, ASC = Society of Cinematographers, ACE = Cinema Editors, ADG = Art Directors, CDG = Costume Designers Guild, MAG = Makeup Artists Guild, MPSE = Sound Editors, CAS = Cinema Audio Society, DGA = Directors Guild; [H] = Honorary Award, W = Winner, N = Nominee or Runner-Up).  And *** denotes a film or artist that has a pretty good chance of upsetting my top five (I will have no more than 3 in a category).

Best Picture

9 February Predictions – 5 of 5 from 23 December
Chicago (W: BrFC, DFC, AFI; N: NBR, SeFC, PFC, GS, GG)
Gangs of New York (W: AFI; N: NBR, BrFC, SeFC, DFC, VFC, GG)
The Hours (W: NBR, SeFC, VFC, AFI; N: BrFC, DFC, GS, GG)
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (W: PFC, AFI; N: BrFC, CFC, SFC, SeFC, DFC, GS, GG)
The Pianist (W: BFC, SFFC; N: NBR, BrFC, CFC, SeFC, DFC, EFA, GG)

Other Possibilities: ***About Schmidt, ***Adaptation, Antwone Fisher, Catch Me If You Can, ***Far from Heaven, Minority Report, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Punch-Drunk Love, The Quiet American, and Road to Perdition.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  The Hours.

Best Director

9 February Predictions – 4 of 5 from 23 December
Stephen Daldry - The Hours (W: VFC; N: GS, GG)
Todd Haynes - Far from Heaven (W: NYFC, CFC, SFFC, SFC, PFC; N: LAFC, TFC, SDFC, SeFC, DFC, GS)
Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (W: LVFC, DFC; N: CFC, SFC, KFC, PFC, GS, GG)
Rob Marshall - Chicago (W: DFC; N: PFC)
Martin Scorsese - Gangs of New York (W: FFC, SeFC; N: BrFC, CFC, DFC, VFC, GG)

Other Possibilities: Pedro Almodóvar for Talk to Her, Paul Thomas Anderson for Punch-Drunk Love, ***Spike Jonze for Adaptation, Sam Mendes for Road to Perdition, Philip Noyce for The Quiet American, Alexander Payne for About Schmidt, ***Roman Polanski for The Pianist, ***Steven Spielberg for Minority Report, and Denzel Washington for Antwone Fisher.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Martin Scorsese - Gangs of New York.

Best Actor

9 February Predictions – 4 of 5 from 23 December
Adrien Brody - The Pianist (W: BFC; N: CFC, DFC, VFC, GG)
Nicolas Cage - Adpatation (W: TFC; N: CFC, DFC, PFC, VFC, GS, GG)
Michael Caine - The Quiet American (N: NSFC)
Daniel Day-Lewis - Gangs of New York (W: LAFC, NYFC, BrFC, SDFC, CFC, FFC, SFC, SeFC, KFC, LVFC, VFC; N: TFC, DFC, PFC, GS, GG)
Jack Nicholson - About Schmidt (W: LAFC, BrFC, DFC; N: NYFC, TFC, SDFC, SeFC, CFC, PFC, GS, GG)

Other Possibilities: Leonardo DiCaprio for Catch Me If You Can, ***Richard Gere for Chicago, ***Hugh Grant for About a Boy, ***Tom Hanks for Road to Perdition, Samuel L. Jackson for Changing Lanes, Kevin Kline for The Emperor’s Club, Derek Luke for Antwone Fisher, Edward Norton for 25th Hour, Dennis Quaid for The Rookie, Adam Sandler for Punch-Drunk Love, Campbell Scott for Roger Dodger, and Robin William for One Hour Photo.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Jack Nicholson - About Schmidt.

Best Actress

9 February Predictions – 5 of 5 from 23 December
Nicole Kidman - The Hours (W: LVFC; N: BrFC, CFC, SFC, SeFC, DFC, PFC, VFC, GS, GG)
Diane Lane - Unfaithful (W: NYFC; N: BrFC, CFC, PFC, VFC, GS, GG)
Julianne Moore - Far from Heaven (W: NBR, LAFC, TFC, BrFC, SDFC, CFC, FFC, SFC, SeFC, KFC, DFC, PFC, VFC; N: NYFC, GS, GG)
Meryl Streep - The Hours (N: BrFC [H], VFC, GS, GG)
Renée Zellwegger - Chicago (W: BrFC [H]; N: CFC, DFC, PFC, GS, GG)

Other Possibilities: ***Jennifer Aniston for The Good Girl, Maggie Gyllenhaal for Secretary, ***Salma Hayek for Frida, Catherine Keener for Lovely and Amazing, Samantha Morton for Morvern Collar, and ***Nia Vardalos for My Big Fat Greek Wedding.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Nicole Kidman - The Hours.

Best Supporting Actor

9 February Predictions – 5 of 5 from 23 December
Chris Cooper - Adaptation (W: NBR, LAFC, TFC, BrFC, SDFC, FFC, SFFC, SFC, SeFC, KFC, DFC, PFC, VFC; N: NYFC, CFC, GS, GG)
Ed Harris - The Hours (N: BrFC [H], DFC, GG)
Paul Newman - Road to Perdition (W: PFC; N: TFC, BrFC, CFC, SeFC, DFC, GS, GG)
Dennis Quaid - Far from Heaven (W: NYFC, CFC; N: TFC, DFC, SFC, PFC, VFC, GS, GG)
Christopher Walken - Catch Me If You Can (N: LAFC, DFC, VFC)

Other Possibilities: Alan Arkin for 13 Conversations About One Thing, Jim Broadbent for Gangs of New York, Tom Hanks for Catch Me If You Can, Dennis Haysbert for Far from Heaven, Dustin Hoffman for Moonlight Mile, ***Ray Liotta for Narc, Ian McKellen for The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, ***Alfred Molina for Frida, ***John C. Reilly for Chicago, John C. Reilly for The Good Girl, Denzel Washington for Antwone Fisher, and Robin Williams for Insomnia.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Chris Cooper - Adaptation.

Best Supporting Actress

9 February Predictions – 4 of 5 from 23 December
Kathy Bates - About Schmidt (W: NBR, DFC; N: LAFC, TFC, BrFC, SDFC, CFC, PFC, VFC, GS, GG)
Queen Latifah - Chicago (W: BrFC [H]; N: PFC [H])
Julianne Moore - The Hours (W: LAFC; N: BrFC [H], CFC, PFC [H], GS)
Meryl Streep - Adaptation (W: CFC, FFC, SeFC; N: BrFC, DFC, PFC, VFC, GS, GG)
Catherine Zeta-Jones - Chicago (W: BrFC, PFC; N: DFC, GG)

Other Possibilities: ***Patricia Clarkson for Far from Heaven, Toni Collette for About a Boy, Toni Collette for The Hours, Hope Davis for About Schmidt, Cameron Diaz for Gangs of New York, ***Edie Falco for Sunshine State, Emily Mortimer for Lovely and Amazing, Samantha Morton for Minority Report, Michelle Pfeiffer for White Oleander, ***Susan Sarandon for Moonlight Mile, Emily Watson for Punch-Drunk Love, and Do Thi Ha Yen for The Quiet American.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Meryl Streep - Adaptation.

Best Adapted Screenplay

9 February Predictions – 5 of 5 from 23 December
About Schmidt - Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor (W: LAFC; N: NYFC, BrFC, SDFC, CFC, GG)
Adaptation - Charlie Kaufman (W: NBR, NYFC, BFC, TFC, BrFC, SDFC, CFC, FFC, SeFC; N: LAFC, PFC, GS, GG)
Chicago - Bill Condon (N: GS, GG)
The Hours - David Hire (W: SFC; N: TFC, SeFC, PFC, GG)
The Pianist - Robert Harwood (N: GS)

Other Possibilities: ***About a Boy by Peter Hedges, Chris Weitz, and Paul Weitz, Catch Me If You Can by Jeff Nathanson, The Emperor’s Club by Neil Tolkin, ***The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers by Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Stephen Sinclair, and Frances Walsh, Minority Report by Scott Frank and Jon Cohen, ***The Quiet American by Christopher Hampton and Robert Schenkkan, and Road to Perdition by David Self.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Adaptation - Charlie Kaufman.

Best Original Screenplay

9 February Predictions – 4 of 5 from 23 December
Antwone Fisher - Antwone Fisher (N: PFC)
Far from Heaven - Todd Haynes (W: SFC, SeFC, PFC; N: SDFC, CFC, GS, GG)
Gangs of New York - Jay Cocks, Kenneth Lonergan, and Steven Zaillian
My Big Fat Greek Wedding - Nia Vardalos (N: BrFC, PFC)
Punch-Drunk Love - Paul Thomas Anderson (N: TFC, CFC, PFC)

Other Possibilities: Changing Lanes by Chap Taylor and Michael Tolkin, 8 Mile by Scott Silver, Igby Goes Down by Burr Steers, Moonlight Mile by Brad Silberling, ***Roger Dodger by Dylan Kidd, Narc by Joe Carnahan, ***Talk to Her by Pedro Almodóvar, 13 Conversations About One Thing by Jill Sprecher and Karen Sprecher, and ***Y Tu Mamá También by Alfonso and Carlos Cuarón.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  My Big Fat Greek Wedding - Nia Vardalos.

Best Cinematography

9 February Predictions – 5 of 5 from 23 December
Far from Heaven - Edward Lachman (W: LAFC, NYFC, BFC, CFC, FFC, DFC, SFC; N: SDFC, PFC, GS)
Gangs of New York - Michael Ballhaus (N: NYFC, CFC, SFC, GS)
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - Andrew Lesnie (W: PFC; N: CFC, GS)
Minority Report - Janusz Kaminski (N: CFC, PFC, GS)
Road to Perdition - Conrad L. Hall (W: SDFC, LVFC; N: NYFC, CFC, PFC, GS)

Other Possibilities: Adaptation, Antwone Fisher, Catch Me If You Can, ***Chicago, The Four Feathers, ***The Hours, The Pianist, Punch-Drunk Love, The Quiet American, Rabbit-Proof Fence, Signs, and ***Y Tu Mamá También.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Road to Perdition - Conrad L. Hall.

Best Film Editing

9 February Predictions – 5 of 5 from 23 December
Chicago - Scott Richter and Martin Walsh (W: PFC; N: SDFC)
Gangs of New York - Thelma Schoonmaker (N: GS)
The Hours - Peter Boyle (N: SDFC)
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - D. Michael Horton (W: LVFC; N: SFC, PFC, GS)
Minority Report - Michael Kahn (N: PFC)

Other Possibilities: ***Adaptation, Antwone Fisher, The Bourne Identity, ***Catch Me If You Can, 8 Mile, Far from Heaven, Femme Fatale, Insomnia, The Pianist, The Quiet American, ***Road to Perdition, Spider-Man, and 13 Conversations About One Thing.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Gangs of New York - Thelma Schoonmaker.

Best Sound

9 February Predictions – 5 of 5 from 23 December
Chicago
Gangs of New York (N: GS)
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (N: GS)
Minority Report (N: GS)
Road to Perdition

Other Possibilities: The Bourne Identity, ***Catch Me If You Can, The Four Feathers, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets, The Hours, The Pianist, ***Signs, Solaris, ***Spider-Man, Star Wars: Episode II -- Attack of the Clones, The Sum of All Fears, We Were Soldiers, and Windtalkers.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Chicago.

Best Sound Effects Editing

9 February Predictions – 2 of 3 from 23 December
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Minority Report
Spider-Man

Other Possibilities: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets, ***Road to Perdition, We Were Soldiers, and ***XXX.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.

Best Visual Effects

9 February Predictions – 3 of 3 from 23 December
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (W: LVFC, PFC; N: GS)
Minority Report (N: PFC, GS)
Star Wars: Episode II -- Attack of the Clones (N: PFC)

Other Possibilities: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets, Men in Black II, ***Spider-Man, and ***XXX.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.

Best Makeup

9 February Predictions – 0 of 2 from 23 December
Frida
The Time Machine

Other Possibilities: None.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Frida.

Best Costume Design

9 February Predictions – 3 of 5 from 23 December
Chicago (W: PFC)
Frida
Far from Heaven (N: PFC)
Gangs of New York (N: PFC, GS)
The Hours

Other Possibilities: Austin Powers in Goldmember, Catch Me If You Can, The Cat’s Meow, ***8 Women, The Four Feathers, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets, The Importance of Being Earnest, ***The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Minority Report, ***Nicholas Nickleby, The Pianist, Road to Perdition, and Star Wars: Episode II -- The Attack of the Clones.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Gangs of New York.

Best Art Direction

9 February Predictions – 4 of 5 from 23 December
Chicago
Far from Heaven (N: SDFC, SFC, PFC)
Gangs of New York (W: LAFC, SFC; N: PFC, GS)
The Hours
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (W: PFC)

Other Possibilities: Catch Me If You Can, CQ, Die Another Day, The Four Feathers, ***Frida, ***Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets, The Importance of Being Earnest, ***Minority Report, Monsoon Wedding, Nicholas Nickleby, The Pianist, The Quiet American, and Road to Perdition.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Chicago.

Best Original Score

9 February Predictions – 4 of 5 from 23 December
Catch Me If You Can (W: BrFC; N: PFC)
Far from Heaven (W: LAFC, SFC, PFC; N: CFC, GG)
Frida
The Hours (N: LAFC, BrFC, CFC, GG)
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (N: BrFC, CFC, PFC)

Other Possibilities: ***About a Boy, Adaptation, Antwone Fisher, The Four Feathers, ***Gangs of New York, ***Minority Report, Nicholas Nickleby, The Pianist, The Quiet American, Rabbit-Proof Fence, Road to Perdition, Signs, Star Wars: Episode II -- The Attack of the Clones, and 25th Hour.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  The Hours.

Best Original Song

9 February Predictions – 4 of 5 from 23 December
"Die Another Day" - Die Another Day (N: PFC, GS, GG)
"Gollum's Song" - The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (W: PFC)
"The Hands That Built America" - Gangs of New York (N: GG)
"Here I Am" - Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron
"I Move On" - Chicago

Other Possibilities: ***"Burn it Blue" from Frida, "Don’t Let Go" from Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron, ***"Father and Daughter" from The Wild Thornberrys Movie, "Hawaiian Roller Coaster Ride" from Lilo & Stitch, ***"Lose Yourself" from 8 Mile, "Hero" from Spider-Man, "I'm Still Here (Jim's Theme)" from Treasure Planet, "Love Will Come Through" from Moonlight Mile, and "Sitting at the Window of My Room" from The Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  "I Move On" - Chicago.

Best Animated Film

9 February Predictions – 3 of 3 from 23 December
Ice Age (W: KFC; N: BrFC, PFC, GS)
Lilo & Stitch (W: LVFC; N: LAFC, BrFC, PFC, GS)
Spirited Away (W: NBR, LAFC, NYFC, BFC [H], BrFC, FFC, DFC, PFC; N: CFC [H], EFA [H], GS)

Other Possibilities: The Powerpuff Girls, ***Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron, ***Stuart Little 2, Treasure Planet, and ***The Wild Thornberrys Movie.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Spirited Away.

Best Documentary Feature

9 February Predictions
Amandla! A Revolution in Four-Part Harmony
Blind Spot: Hitler's Secretary
Bowling for Columbine (W: NBR, TFC, BrFC, CFC, FFC, SeFC, KFC, LVFC, DFC, PFC; N: LAFC, NYFC)
The Kid Stays in the Picture (W: BFC; N: NYFC, BrFC, CFC, PFC)
Standing in the Shadows of Motown (W: NYFC, NSFC; N: TFC, BrFC, CFC, SeFC)

Other Possibilities: ***Prisoner of Paradise, ***Melissa Etheridge Live... And Alone, Naqoyatsi, ***Winged Migration.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  Bowling for Columbine.

Best Foreign Language Film

9 February Predictions
Le Fils - Luc and Jean-Pierre Dardenne (Belgium)
City of God - Fernando Meirelles (Brazil) (N: NBR)
El Crimen Del Padre Amaro - Carlos Carrera (Mexico) (N: NBR)
Hero - Zhang Yimou (China)
Nowhere in Africa - Caroline Link (Germany)

Other Possibilities: ***Argentina's Kamchatka by Marcelo Pineyro, Canada's Un Crabe Dans La Tete by Andre Turpin, ***Finland's The Man Without a Past by Aki Kaurismaki, Frace's 8 Women by François Ozon, Hong Kong's The Touch by Peter Pau, Iceland's The Sea by Baltasar Kormakur, Israel's Broken Wings by Nir Bergman, Russia's House of Fools by Andrei Konchalovsky, Spain's Mondays in the Sun by Fernando Leon, Sweden's Lilja 4-Ever by Lukas Moodysson, ***Switzerland's Aime Ton Père by Jacob Berger, Uruguay's Hearts of Fire by Diego Arsuaga.

Early, Early, Early Winner Prediction:  City of God - Fernando Meirelles (Brazil).

Best Live Action Short & Best Animated Short

Due to the fact that the Academy has chosen not to give a short list in these categories, I have no way of predicting them.

-- FINAL TALLY --

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Analysis by:
David Perry
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