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Oscar '01 Pre-Show
Opening Commentary: Like last year, no film really seems to dominate this year's Oscar predictions. The Lord of the Rings has all the makings of a huge sweeper, but A Beautiful Mind and even Moulin Rouge are making it tough to really believe that the Peter Jackson behemoth will ultimately come out with Best Picture. Last year, I had a horrendous predictions count -- hopefully I can save face with this year's predictions, though I seriously doubt it.
For just a moment I would like to make a quick reference to four great places to go for predictions. The first one is from Alex Fung's highly informative web page. Just click on the Oscar part at the top of the page. The other link is to John Harkness. He could easily be called the most knowledged person about the Academy Awards with his annual book on the ceremony. Using gossip from the Hollywood grapevine and the rules of thumb put forth in his book, he has a pretty good listing of predictions that will probably be more accurate than mine. This can be found at the home page of the Toronto Now Magazine (this link is not yet active, Jim Ridley has not released his predictions yet). This year I have two new sites of interest for Oscar buzz. I have found a wealth of information at the Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board, a place for Oscar aficionados to sit back and voice news, opinions, and predictions. The other site is Zeusefer's Year-Round Oscar Prediction Charts, where Zeusefer keeps up with every nook and cranny of the race beginning the week after the previous Academy Awards.
Now onto my highly opinionated (and probably half wrong) musings. I will start off with the eleven main awards where there will be a nice round about reasoning behind the choices. In the place where it says "Will win: ..." that means that I'm deeming it a shoo-in (this will be a rarity considering the fierce battles this year). After that are the lesser "technical" categories where it's usually harder to pick though not always. My "Should win: ..." spot is pretty much as accurate as their going to come being that I have already seen everything in the competitive fields (re: not all of the shorts, documentaries, and foreign nominees). The [Order of Chance: ...] is self descriptive. Once again don't start placing your money on who I say will win because some of them are mere guesses.
NOTE: There will be changes added to this list in the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor categories (and possibly Best Supporting Actress) on 24 March 2002, the day of the Oscars. The reason for this is that I will not have a chance to see nominee Iris until just before the show.
--MAIN AWARDS--
Best Picture
A Beautiful Mind, Gosford Park, In
the Bedroom, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, and Moulin Rouge
Should win: Gosford Park. It
is a close toss-up between Gosford Park and Moulin Rouge, both of which
I thought were terrific films. The only problem that I see in my mind (other than
the fact that neither film really has a great chance of winning Best Picture) is that the
seven eligible 2001 films I thought were better (Mulholland Dr., Ghost World,
Faithless, A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, Under the Sand, The
Royal Tenenbaums, and The Man Who Wasn't There) failed to receive
nominations.
Will win: A Beautiful Mind. As much as it pains me to predict A Beautiful Mind,
all the cards seem to point to it. There are two kinks -- the Producers Guild gave
Best Picture to Moulin Rouge and The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the
Rings received more nominations -- but the Ron Howard film will probably still come
out victorious. I don't really condone it, but I'll be happy if that A Beautiful
Mind smear campaign is successful. [Order of Chance: A Beautiful Mind, The
Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge, Gosford Park, In
the Bedroom]
Best Director
Robert Altman (Gosford Park), Ron Howard (A
Beautiful Mind), Peter Jackson (The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring),
David Lynch (Mulholland Dr.), and Ridley Scott (Black Hawk Down)
Should win: David Lynch (Mulholland Dr.). Oh, boy, a Lynch nomination for Mulholland Dr. is
pleasing enough. Sure, the surrealist director has no chance to win, but at least he
enjoy the wide assortment of critic's awards thrown to him.
Will win: Ron Howard (A
Beautiful Mind). Last year the Directors
Guild of America gave Best Director to Ang Lee, who, of course, lost to Steven Soderbergh;
however, betting on that happening again this year is not too prudent. This seems to
be the year when Ron Howard is going to get his dues, much to the chagrin of everyone who
thinks that he is an untalented hack (myself included). Lynch, Altman, Jackson, and
even Scott (for a film I didn't terribly care for!) would be better fit to take the award.
[Order of Chance: Ron
Howard (A Beautiful Mind), Robert Altman (Gosford Park), Peter
Jackson (The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring), Ridley Scott (Black
Hawk Down), David Lynch (Mulholland Dr.)]
Best Actor
Russell Crowe (A Beautiful Mind), Will Smith (Ali), Sean Penn (I Am Sam), Denzel Washington (Training
Day), and
Tom Wilkinson (In the Bedroom)
Should win: Tom Wilkinson (In the Bedroom). Tom Wilkinson was
the emotional precipice of In the Bedroom, proving to be more than just that
resolute British straightman in comedies. Though he probably won't be able to come
away with the Oscar for this, at least this means that he will get more chances to show
his abilities as a dramatic actor.
Will win: Denzel Washington (Training
Day). Saying that Washington's possible win is completely because of his
race is a little short-sighted, Washington has consistently shown himself as a great
American actor (though at times a too self-righteous) without any Oscar for his leading
roles. If race were the issue, Will Smith would hurt Washington's chances.
Crowe, the original favorite to win, has seen much of his support burst with his outburst
at the BAFTA show a couple weeks ago, plus it's doubtful that the Academy is ready to give
two consecutive Oscars so soon. [Order of Chance: Denzel Washington (Training Day), Russell Crowe (A Beautiful Mind), Tom Wilkinson (In the
Bedroom), Will
Smith (Ali), Sean Penn (I Am Sam)]
Best Actress
Halle Berry (Monster's Ball), Judi Dench (Iris),
Nicole Kidman (Moulin Rouge), Sissy Spacek (In the Bedroom), and Renée
Zellweger (Bridget Jones's Diary)
Should win: Sissy Spacek (In the Bedroom). Sissy Spacek did a great job in In the Bedroom, easily
showing more prowess than the other nominated ladies (Mrs. Dench not included; I haven't
seen her film yet), though I'm still perturbed at the women the Academy looked over.
Just a moment while I bandy off their names again: Ghost World's Thora
Birch, The Deep End's Tilda Swinton, Mulholland Dr.'s Naomi Watts, Under
the Sand's Charlotte Rampling, and Faithless' Lena Endre.
Will win: Sissy Spacek (In the
Bedroom). I doubt the Academy will not
feel the same way as me in comparison to the other nominees. Kidman, riding two
major performances last year, and Berry, winner of the Screen Actors Guild award, might
pull an upset, but that is not too probable. Meanwhile, Dench will have to settle
with her umpteenth nomination and Zellweger with recognition that's as much for 2000's Nurse
Betty as for last year's Bridget Jones's Diary. [Order of Chance: Sissy Spacek (In the Bedroom), Nicole Kidman (Moulin
Rouge), Halle Berry (Monster's Ball), Judi
Dench (Iris), Renée Zellweger (Bridget Jones's Diary)]
Best Supporting Actor
Jim Broadbent (Iris), Ethan Hawke (Training
Day), Ben Kingsley (Sexy Beast), Ian McKellen (The Lord of the Rings:
The Fellowship of the Ring), and Jon Voight (Ali)
Should win: Ben Kingsley (Sexy Beast). Ben Kingsley's insidious and raw turn as the Cockney Joe Pesci
made his performance one of the most memorable this year, so much that when the movie is
over, despite the fact that Ray Winstone has twice as much screentime, people fought over
whether Kingsley was a lead or supporting..
Will win: Ian McKellen (The Lord
of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring).
In a three dog race, Ian McKellen has help from not having an Oscar despite a career of
some remarkable performances (not winning in 1998 was a travesty) and should just barely
edge above critics favorite Ben Kingsley and Jim Broadbent. Then again, Broadbent
does get help from the fact that he had another major performance in Moulin Rouge.
[Order of Chance: Ian McKellen (The Lord
of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring), Jim Broadbent (Iris),
Ben Kingsley (Sexy Beast), Jon Voight (Ali), Ethan Hawke (Training
Day)]
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Connelly (A Beautiful Mind), Helen
Mirren (Gosford Park), Maggie Smith (Gosford Park), Marisa Tomei (In
the Bedroom), and Kate Winslet (Iris)
Should win: Helen Mirren (Gosford Park). The always terrific Helen Mirren pulls off one of her best
performances in Gosford Park where she somehow comes off as the best actress
amongst a dozen highly talented peers in the ensemble. Maggie Smith might have been
the favorite for most filmgoers (who loved her catty elitist), but the real great
performance came from Mrs. Mirren.
Will win: Jennifer Connelly (A
Beautiful Mind). Yung'un of the bunch
Jennifer Connelly gets the ingenue edge that, I suppose, came into effect when Marisa
Tomei won. If the Academy somehow decides to pull a Judi Dench and give it to an
established performer, expect one of the Gosford gals to take the stage.
[Order of Chance: Jennifer
Connelly (A Beautiful Mind), Helen Mirren (Gosford Park), Maggie
Smith (Gosford Park), Marisa Tomei (In the Bedroom), Kate Winslet (Iris)]
Best Cinematography
Amélie, Black Hawk Down, The
Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, The Man Who Wasn't There, and
Moulin Rouge
Should win: The Man Who Wasn't There. Even the film's biggest critics admit that Roger Deakins work on The
Man Who Wasn't There stands as one of the best achievements of 2001. His black
and white cinematography (though it was filmed on color stock) proved that he is, without
a doubt, the finest cinematographer working.
Will win: The Man Who Wasn't
There. And yet, Roger Deakins has never
won an Oscar -- until now. Though there's always a chance that The Lord of the
Rings will sweep and take this category, the odds are on Deakins. The last time
a black and white film was nominated in this category was Janusz Kaminski's work on Schindler's
List, which won. Though not a sure thing, Deakins looks like one of the closest
shoo-ins of the night. [Order of Chance: The Man Who Wasn't There, The Lord of the
Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge, Black Hawk Down,
Amélie]
Best Foreign Language Film
Amélie (France), Elling (Norway), No Man's Land (Bosnia-Herzegovina), Lagaan (India), and Son of the Bride (Argentina)
Should win: Amélie (France). I generally find that there's an assortment of critics and
cineasts who I agree with for the most part, however nearly all of them agree that Amélie
is the most cloying film of the year. I counter, it's a light-hearted romp that
never progresses beyond its borders but at least keeps the audience enamored for two
hours. Plus, it has wonderful scoring, cinematography, and editing, even if Audrey
Toutou gives a one-note performance. Oh, and for the record, I have only seen one
other nominee, No Man's Land, which I also highly appreciated.
Will win: Amélie (France). Amélie has seen some of its steam die down over
the few months since it came out. Miramax is still going to fight hard for a win in
this category (and it is quite possible that they will succeed), but MGM is going to try
just as hard to move No Man's Land from being merely a Golden Globe winner.
[Order of Chance: Amélie (France), No Man's
Land (Bosnia-Herzegovina), Lagaan (India),
Elling (Norway), Son of the Bride (Argentina)]
Best Animated Film
Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius, Monsters,
Inc., and Shrek
Should win: Monsters, Inc.
For the first year with this category, I find it saddening that the Academy failed to
nominate the year's best animated work, the experimental delight Waking Life.
Evidently, they thought the fact that it was originally filmed with live-action
cameras hurt it. Nonetheless, I do not mind turning to the Disney/Pixar masterpiece Monsters,
Inc., which may not have been as good as either Toy Story films, but was
still a fine work of classical animation (it's odd, in the wake of Waking Life,
needing to refer to Monsters, Inc.'s CGI animation as "classical
animation").
Will win: Shrek. For some unknown reason, people are enamored by Shrek,
so much that it was highly favored by some as a possible Best Picture nominee. I
don't get it, but I do see that it has easily enough support to rise above its two
competitors. Paramount and Disney are each putting on major campaigns to win this,
especially in the latter camp, but the Dreamworks ogre picture should readily walk off
with the inaugural award. [Order of Chance: Shrek, Monsters, Inc., Jimmy
Neutron: Boy Genius]
Best Original Screenplay
Amélie, Gosford Park, Memento,
Monster's Ball, and The Royal Tenenbaums
Should win: The Royal Tenenbaums. Not only was this a year marked with some incredible foreign
films, but also a nice collection of great dark comedies. The Royal Tenenbaums
was part of that comedic renaissance thanks to its pitch-perfect screenplay by Wes
Anderson and Owen Wilson. Sure, it was not quite the level of achievement Rushmore
was, but at least it was crafted well enough that I had to go out and reread Salinger's Nine
Stories afterwards.
Will win: Memento. This category is in the air, with Gosford Park, Memento,
Monster's Ball, and The Royal Tenenbaums all giving a great deal of
threat to the others (sorry, Amélie). Considering the high admiration
accorded to Memento by its supporters, expect the Memento block to bring
this just enough votes to raise it above the others. [Order of Chance: Memento, Gosford Park,
Monster's Ball, The Royal Tenenbaums, Amélie]
Best Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Mind, Ghost World, In
the Bedroom, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, and Shrek
Should win: Ghost World.
Another great comedy this year was Terry Zwigoff's loser-love epic Ghost World.
This touching but still absolutely wickedly tinged movie deserves all the awards
given to it, including this one. However, I cannot see the Academy loving Enid,
Seymour, and the rest enough to hand an Oscar to screenwriters Zwigoff and Daniel Clowes
(case in point, the lack of nominations for stars Thora Birch and Steve Buscemi).
Will win: A Beautiful Mind. Bear with me for a second: Practical Magic, A
Time to Kill, Lost in Space, Batman Forever, and Batman &
Robin. Sure, I believe that a person can atone for their cinematic sins and
create a great film, but that is definitely not the case with Akiva Goldsman and the Oscar
that he's about to win. Do we really want to have an Oscar on the mantel of the man
who wrote "I don't like the sound of that sound," "I hate to disappoint you
but my rubber lips are immune to your charms," and "perhaps is good to have a
beautiful mind, but an even greater gift is to discover a beautiful heart"?
What's really sad, though, is that the last quote came from the movie he's going to win
the Oscar for. [Order of Chance: A Beautiful Mind, In the Bedroom, Ghost World,
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Shrek]
--THE TECHNICAL AWARDS--
Best Visual Effects
A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, The Lord
of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, and Pearl Harbor
Should win: A.I.: Artificial Intelligence. Generally CGI-visual effects only work well on a theatre screen.
Something about the large venue facilitates the awe-inspiring work of the CGI
technicians. A.I. is not that way -- rewatching the film recently on a
television only reminded me what a grand achievement the film really is. The effects
in the film stand up beyond my expectations. Plus, I had already decided that it was
the best effects of the year, regardless.
Will win: A.I.: Artificial
Intelligence. Methinks, the Academy will
feel the same way. While the non-ILM work on The Lord of the Rings (a local
Oceania company did its effects), only a sweep by the Peter Jackson film will be enough to
knock A.I. out. Then again, this may be me blindly expecting my favorite to
win. [Order of Chance: A.I.:
Artificial Intelligence, The Lord of the Rings: The
Fellowship of the Ring, Pearl Harbor]
Best Film Editing
A Beautiful Mind, Black Hawk Down, The
Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Memento, and Moulin Rouge
Should win: Moulin Rouge.
Ooh, the vitriol I'm bringing up by calling Moulin Rouge the best nominee.
But, yes, I do think that the fast-paced visuals were timed perfectly to the point where
the story was comprehensible and the visuals were still seen in all their splendor.
I'm one of the biggest critics of fast-paced cutting, but even I must respect the fine
work found in Moulin Rouge.
Will win: The Lord of the Rings:
The Fellowship of the Ring. Moulin
Rouge stands a chance, but this is really between the action work in The Lord of
the Rings and the mind-boggling work on Memento. I happen to the Memento
is the better of the two, but Lord of the Rings has the edge because it is a
little more classical in its action film history. Considering the way most action
films use editing, the fact that nearly every shot in the Peter Jackson film is
comprehensible stands as testament to the conservatism behind the film. [Order of
Chance: The Lord of the Rings: The
Fellowship of the Ring, Memento, Moulin Rouge, Black Hawk Down, A Beautiful Mind]
Best Sound
Amélie, Black Hawk Down, The
Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge, and Pearl
Harbor
Should win: Moulin Rouge.
With every song, Moulin Rouge comes to life. While this is a good film for
its drama and occasional bouts of comedy, the film is essentially a work devoted to its
use of sounds and sound technicians Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer, Roger Savage, and
Guntis Sics were sufficiently up to the task.
Will win: The Lord of the Rings:
The Fellowship of the Ring. Regardless of
how well the film does in major categories, The Lord of the Rings should pretty
easily rack up some technical awards. The Cinema Audio Society winner (where it was
nominated against the same list of films except Shrek replaced Amélie)
has more than enough support to call this one almost in the bag. [Order of Chance:
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of
the Ring, Moulin Rouge, Pearl Harbor, Black
Hawk Down, Amélie]
Best Sound Effects Editing
Monsters, Inc. and Pearl Harbor
Should win: Pearl Harbor.
Never in my days did I think that I would have to write that Pearl Harbor was may
favorite to win an Academy Award. That horrendous piece of Hollywood mass-production
is like a cancer in 2001 that needs to be removed from the history books. Yes, its
sound effects editing were exemplary, but that does not pardon its many other rotten
aspects.
Will win: Pearl Harbor. The Academy will probably not turn to Monsters, Inc.
unless a large enough faction thinks that the film deserves a runners-up award from the
Best Animated Film Category. I love the Pixar film, but this is almost assuredly an
easy win for another Disney concoction, Pearl Harbor. [Order of Chance: Pearl Harbor, Monsters,
Inc.]
Best Original Score
A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, A
Beautiful Mind, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone,
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring,
and Monsters Inc.
Should win: A.I.: Artificial Intelligence. Soon after listening to his score to A.I., I remarked
that it was John Williams' best in years. And, factoring out Schindler's List,
his work on the Spielberg film could probably be his finest work since the seventies, his
best period. The melancholy chords that perfectly fit the melancholy movie turn it
into one of the most memorable scores to listen to long after watching the movie.
Will win: The
Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. Howard Shore, like Carter Burwell, has long deserved an Oscar and
it looks like his time has finally come. Unless the schlocky James Horner score to A
Beautiful Mind gains momentum, Shore can start preparing his speech. Hopefully,
Burwell's time won't be too long from now. [Order of Chance: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of
the Ring, A Beautiful Mind, A.I.: Artificial Intelligence, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, Monsters Inc.]
Best Original Song
"If I Didn't Have You" (Monsters, Inc.), "May It Be" (The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of
the Ring), "There You'll Be" (Pearl
Harbor), "Until..." (Kate
& Leopold), and "Vanilla Sky" (Vanilla
Sky)
Should win: "May It Be" (The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of
the Ring). I do not terribly like
Enya's song from The Lord of the Rings, its a nice, quaint piece, but nothing to
write home about. In fact, I was so upset with the state of original songs this year
that none of the songs I placed in my top 5 for the year were even eligible for Oscar
consideration.
Will win: "Until..." (Kate
& Leopold). Pop,
easy-listening conquers all. The only question is, will it be from Sting or Paul
McCartney? There's always the sentimentality that goes with the fact that it is
Paul, but, let's face it, that song is so bad that he should just consider a nomination as
enough recognition. [Order of Chance: "Until..."
(Kate & Leopold), "Vanilla Sky" (Vanilla
Sky), "May It Be" (The Lord of the
Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring), "There You'll Be" (Pearl
Harbor), "If I
Didn't Have You" (Monsters, Inc.)]
Best Makeup
A Beautiful Mind, The Lord of the Rings:
The Fellowship of the Ring, and Moulin Rouge
Should win: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. What massive force of nature kept the Planet of the
Apes makeup out the running this year -- it was one of the few good things in the
film? Of those actually nominated, the work on The Lord of the Rings goes
far above that horrendous aging makeup used in A Beautiful Mind and the low-key
stuff in Moulin Rouge.
Will win: The Lord of the Rings:
The Fellowship of the Ring. I think the
Academy will feel the same way -- The Lord of the Rings, unless another one of
those forces of nature occurs, should easily win this one. [Order of Chance: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of
the Ring, A Beautiful Mind, Moulin Rouge]
Best Costume Design
The Affair of the Necklace, Gosford Park,
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, and The Lord of the Rings: The
Fellowship of the Ring, and Moulin Rouge
Should win: Moulin Rouge.
Sparkling diamonds, indeed, as well as a slew of other great costumes and accessories in
this musical gem of a production. Moulin Rouge may not be the most
beautiful film of the year (ahem, A.I.), but it certainly comes close, thanks to
all the fine work done by its designers.
Will win: The Lord of the Rings:
The Fellowship of the Ring. But that
always possible Lord of the Rings sweep will probably keep Moulin Rouge
from striking gold in this category. The grand-scale production has the steam to
beat Moulin Rouge as well as the barely-noticed Gosford Park and Harry
Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone. However, I should note that the Academy does
have a tendency of throwing costume awards at the most unknown nominees, which could
definitely help The Affair of the Necklace. [Order of Chance: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, The
Affair of the Necklace, Moulin Rouge, Harry
Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, Gosford Park]
Best Art Direction
Amélie, Gosford Park, Harry
Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the
Ring, and
Moulin Rouge
Should win: Moulin Rouge. The
lavish stage lived up to the name Spectacular, Spectacular, and that elephant
abode made for one of the most memorable song-and-dance settings since Gene Kelly pranced
through the fountain in An American in Paris -- give these kids an Oscar.
Will win: Moulin Rouge. I doubt the Academy will forget all those great sets
either, unless (and everyone can say it with me) there's a Lord of the Rings
sweep. [Order of Chance: Moulin Rouge, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of
the Ring, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, Gosford Park, Amélie]
Best Documentary Feature
Children Underground, Lalee's Kin: The Legacy of Cotton, Murder
on a Sunday Morning, Promises, and War Photographer
Should win: N/A. I have not seen
any of the nominees.
Will win: Promises. In keeping with timeliness, watch Promises, a
film about children's reactions to the pre-September 11 conflicts in the Middle East, run
off with this one. Of course, I know little about the other nominees, but from my
standpoint, it looks tough to take that one out. [Order of Chance: Promises, War Photographer, Children
Underground, Lalee's Kin: The
Legacy of Cotton, Murder on a Sunday Morning]
Best Documentary Short Subject, Live-Action
Short Film, Animated Short Film
•Artists and Orphans: A True Drama, Sing!, and Thoth
•The Accountant, Copy Shop,
Gregor's Greatest Invention, A Man Thing, and Speed for Thespians
•Fifty Percent Grey, For the Birds,
Give Up Yer Aul Sins, Strange Invaders, and Stubble Trouble
Should and Will win: See Blatant Opinion Essay below.
--FINAL TALLY--
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring...6
A Beautiful Mind...4
A.I.: Artificial Intelligence...1
Amélie...1
In the Bedroom...1
Kate & Leopold...1
The Man Who Wasn't There...1
Memento...1
Moulin Rouge...1
Pearl Harbor...1
Promises...1
Shrek...1
Training Day...1
Analysis by:
David Perry
©2001,
Cinema-Scene.com
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