2015 Academy Awards Nominee Predictions

The following are my final predictions for Oscar nominees this Thursday. Films and people are listed in order of likelihood of getting a nomination, with three additional possibilities listed afterward. [Updated to reflect the actual nominees — denoted in red.]

Picture

(assuming 10 nominees)

Bridge of Spies
The Revenant
Spotlight
The Martian
Room
Carol
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
Sicario
On the Bubble:
Creed
Straight Outta Compton
Steve Jobs


Director

Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu (The Revenant)
Ridley Scott (The Martian)
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
Steven Spielberg (Bridge of Spies)
On the Bubble:
Todd Haynes (Carol)
Adam McKay (The Big Short)
Lenny Abrahamson (Room)

Actor

Leonard DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
On the Bubble:
Steve Carell (The Big Short)
Michael B. Jordan (Creed)
Johnny Depp (Black Mass)

Actress

Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Brie Larson (Room)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
On the Bubble:
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Emily Blunt (Sicario)

Supporting Actor

Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Jacob Tremblay (Room)
Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
On the Bubble:
Michael Shannon (99 Homes)
Michael Keaton (Spotlight)
Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)

Missed:
Tom Hardy (The Revenant)


Supporting Actress

Rooney Mara (Carol)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Joan Allen (Room)
On the Bubble:
Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria)
Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
Helen Mirren (Trumbo)

Original Screenplay

Spotlight
Bridge of Spies
Inside Out
Sicario
The Hateful Eight
On the Bubble:
Straight Outta Compton
Ex Machina
Joy


Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short
Room
Brooklyn
The Martian
Steve Jobs
On the Bubble:
Carol
The Revenant
Trumbo


Foreign Language Film

Son of Saul
A War
Mustang
Theeb
Viva
On the Bubble:
Labyrinth of Lies
The Fencer
Embrace of the Serpent


Documentary Feature

Amy
The Look of Silence
Best of Enemies
3 1/2 Minutes, 10 Bullets
Cartel Land
On the Bubble:
Going Clear
The Hunting Ground
He Named Me Malala

Missed:
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom



Animated Feature

Inside Out
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
The Prophet
Shaun the Sheep Movie
On the Bubble:
When Marnie Was There
Minions
The Peanuts Movie

Missed:
Boy and the World


Cinematography

Emmanuel Lubezki (The Revenant)
Edward Lachman (Carol)
Janusz Kaminski (Bridge of Spies)
Robert Richardson (The Hateful Eight)
John Seale (Mad Max: Fury Road)
On the Bubble:
Roger Deakins (Sicario)
Dariusz Wolski (The Martian)
Yves Bélanger (Brooklyn)

Editing

The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
On the Bubble:
Sicario
Creed
Spotlight

Missed:
Star Wars: The Force Awakens


Score

The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Carol
Bridge of Spies
Spotlight
On the Bubble:
Steve Jobs
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Missed:
Sicario


Song

“Writings on the Wall” (Spectre)
“See You Again” (Furious 7)
“Love Me Like You Do” (Fifty Shades of Grey)
“Simple Song #3” (Youth)
“Til It Happens to You” (The Hunting Ground)
On the Bubble:
“Waiting for My Moment” (Creed)
“Who Can You Trust” (Spy)
“Hands of Love” (Freeheld)

Missed:
“Manta Ray” (Racing Extinction)
“Earned It” (Fifty Shades of Grey)


Production Design

Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
On the Bubble:
Cinderella
Brooklyn
Crimson Peak

Missed:
The Danish Girl
The Revenant


Costume Design

Carol
Cinderella
Brooklyn
Crimson Peak
The Danish Girl
On the Bubble:
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Kingsman: The Secret Service

Makeup and Hairstyling

The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
Black Mass
On the Bubble:
Mr. Holmes
Concussion
Legend

Missed:
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared


Sound Editing

Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Inside Out
On the Bubble:
Straight Outta Compton
Sicario
Jurassic World

Sound Mixing

Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Martian
Jurassic World
Spectre
On the Bubble:
Avengers: Age of Ultron
The Revenant
Inside Out

Missed:
Bridge of Spies


Visual Effects

Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Walk
On the Bubble:
The Revenant
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Ant-Man

Missed:
Ex Machina


Animated Short

World of Tomorrow
Bear Story
If I Was God
Sanjay’s Super Team
An Object at Rest
On the Bubble:
Prologue
Carface (Autos Portraits)
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos

Live Action Short

Ave Maria
Everything Will Be Okay
Contrapelo
Bis Gleich (Till Then)
Shok
On the Bubble:
Day One
Winter Light
Stutterer

Documentary Short Subject

Body Team 12
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom
My Enemy, My Brother
The Testimony
On the Bubble:
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Minerita

Missed:
A Girl in the River

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